The Coming Church of Christ Collapse

The greatest present threat to the Church of Christ (CoC) isn't false doctrine but demographic collapse. This may be unpopular to say, but it's true. While our typically older conservative members fret about the infiltration of false religious ideas, the church is facing an implosion of a completely different kind. Demographics are usually destiny, and they aren't on our side.

If the church loses enough people it loses its institutions, and if it loses its institutions it loses its identity, and if it loses its identity it ceases to exist. The Churches of Christ are already entering the second phase of collapse. Freed Hardeman University is among our only remaining schools at which the majority of students identify as Church of Christ members. This was dramatically different just a few decades ago. Very little institutional unity will remain if we lose our colleges. 

THE NUMBERS 

If we look at American membership numbers (as opposed to "adherents") we find that in 2014 the Churches of Christ had 1,367,859 members. That number dropped to 1,126,347 by 2018. We lost approximately 245,000 members in four years. A 17% drop. The Churches of Christ will hit zero members in less than thirty years if that number is correct and remains constant.*

That statistic seems almost unbelievable, but if we look at the decline in adherents from 2003 to 2012 we see that its part of a broader accelerating trend. We lost 105,000 adherents during that nine year period. A drop of 6.2%. We were losing 35 members a day and seven congregations every month.

If we were declining that quickly from 2003 to 2012 is it any surprise that it's sped up since then? After analyzing the 2012 numbers, the late Jay Guin predicted the accelerating decline we've seen since:

"At the current rate of decline, assuming no acceleration, the Churches of Christ will hit zero members in 121 years. But, of course, for at least a while, the numbers will accelerate, because the numbers show the church becoming disproportionately older and the rate of decline is going up. We aren’t keeping our own children, much less bringing new children in. As congregations become smaller, they’ll struggle to hold on to their members... The decline will accelerate."

As the church ages, younger people will increasingly become alienated from congregations that aren't shaped or populated by their own generation, and if these younger people leave then new children will never be born. Church of Christ affiliated colleges will have to bring in more and more non-Church of Christ students until they lose their CoC identities altogether. This process has already been completed at a number of "our" colleges. The institutional collapse is upon us. Very few people are seriously discussing how to reverse this death spiral.

The Churches of Christ are also declining as a percentage of the American population. The United States has added roughly thirty five million people since 2003, but the the CoC has lost hundreds of thousands in that same time period. We should be growing, but we're rapidly dying. 

FRACTURING 

The Churches of Christ are currently in the middle of a split that will carry away a significant number of our dwindling fellowship. We're dividing into three branches: "liberals/progressives," conservatives, and "antis." Conservatives are the largest group, but the liberals probably make up around 30 to 40 percent of our membership (based on the arbitrary, but likely helpful, number of those who accept the LGBT movement and other "liberal" ideas). The so called "antis" (anti-institutional congregations) make up about 9% of our numbers. It looks like we'll soon lose about half our membership, and this is a loss we really can't afford.

If our American membership now stands at around 1,100,000 we'll soon be reduced to 770,000 in a best case scenario. There's a sense in which this is already true because the split is de facto finished. Liberals, conservatives, and antis rarely cooperate or accept one another. Is there anyone who seriously thinks the split can be mended? In my experience, which is somewhat extensive, the divide is only growing more extreme as the sides signal against each other and polarize.

The split is also generational. Younger members tend to be more liberal than their parents and grandparents, and they'll statistically trend towards the breakaway liberal minority group. This will then further accelerate the declining conservative mainstream by taking away its source of future children. 

MONEY PROBLEMS 

Young people, specifically millennials, are poorer than their Baby Boomer parents and grandparents. Millennials have loads of debt, own very little, save even less, and are facing a more challenging economy. The church will soon have to deal with lower average contributions in addition to fewer people contributing.

The average Church of Christ member is comparatively less educated than members of other religious groups (fewer years of schooling). By far the largest average educational attainment for a Church of Christ member is "High School or less" (47%). This is partly why our members have lower average incomes when compared to other religious groups. By far the largest income bracket represented in Churches of Christ are those making "less than $30,000" (37%). This trend has been true since the beginning of the Restoration Movement, but it now poses a significant problem because many congregations built considerable real estate assets during the 1900s that will soon become too expensive to maintain. Donations will dwindle for all our institutions and publications. 

SOCIAL CONDITIONS 

Social disintegration inside and outside the church is accelerating. Out of wedlock births now constitute almost half of all births in America. Social morality, especially regarding sexuality, is moving further away from Christian doctrine. Opioids and drug abuse is exploding. These trends are disproportionately effecting younger Church of Christ members.

Social, economic, and familial decay are striking lower and middle income Americans hardest. Unfortunately, the majority of Church of Christ members fall into this socio-economic category. Our declining divided fellowship is being hit hard by these destructive trends, and we have fewer people and resources to deal with the consequences. 

CONCLUSION 

I grew up in one of the larger congregations in my state. I had plenty of youth attending church alongside me. However, I've since calculated that over 70% of my peers eventually left the church (and that dropout rate is well within national averages). Their stories are all different, but they left for fairly common reasons. Those who remained often don't have pretty lives. Some returned after spending their teens and early twenties partying themselves into crisis, some of the girls had children out of wedlock, and others have married and divorced.

Additionally, those who've stuck around are disproportionately female. There are so few spiritually minded young men. Where will the next generation of deacons and elders come from?

The trends I've described aren't just statistical, and I've experienced them in deeply personal ways. Desperate questions are now being asked by thoughtful young Church of Christers: Will the Church of Christ cease to exist within my lifetime? Will I be able to find a Church of Christ to attend when I'm 65 or 70 years old? Will my children have a church to attend? The answer is definitely "no" if the church continues to decline at the current rate.

These questions are rendered more pertinent by the increasing geographic isolation characterizing the Churches of Christ. The bulk of the CoC is in the American South. Churches of Christ will disappear more quickly in areas where they are less common because young people will fail to find peer groups and spouses who share their values. The CoC is shrinking into a regional phenomenon dominated by a specific cultural language that outsiders will find more and more alien.

Many will comfort themselves that the church's extinction is impossible because God will ensure that a remnant of his people remain. I agree, but where were the Churches of Christ during the thousand year period from Emperor Constantine to Martin Luther? If that's the kind of darkness we face then I think its reasonable to say that the Churches of Christ as we've known them will no longer exist. 

*There's some dispute about the rate of decline. Some sources claim it isn't as dramatic (although all admit it's pretty bad). However, the sources I linked to are the most recent, and they definitely seem to indicate a decline of around 17% from 2014 to 2018.